Given that it will not be free and fair, Iran’s July 5 presidential election run-off can hardly be predicted, and the odds are stacked against ‘reformist’ candidate Masoud Pezeshkian. On the off chance he might win, however, it is worth bearing in mind a potential explanation for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei allowing him to do so:
- Khamenei is no dove, but he could make the bet (per one theory) that allowing a moderate (and anyway quite toothless) president to take over might (paradoxically) make the hardline regime safer by taking some of the air out of both domestic (protests) and international (sanctions) pressures at a time when Khamenei is concerned above all else about ensuring a steady transition to his future Supreme Leader successor.
At first glance, such a hypothesis may seem to stand in direct contradiction to a different observation about the Iranian regime: namely, that a “faction, which both controls the upper echelons of the IRGC and prevails among young, up-and-coming officers, […] has become especially influential since the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the IRGC’s external operations wing, in 2020, by the United States”. In other words: that the next generation of Iran’s security establishment will be even more hardline than its
current elite.
- How can these two considerations be conciliated, and what implications should we take away from them regarding Iran’s behavior to come? The answer is likely that…
- Iran’s foreign policy (and domestic regime) will likely only get more aggressive going forward, but possibly after a period of consolidation first takes place (including possibly even if Jalili wins).
***
Appendix: The drivers of Iran’s July 5 presidential run-off:
- Factors favoring Pezeshkian:
- Reformist turnout may be boosted by:
- The hopeful prospect of a reformist victory now tangibly on the horizon.
- The fearful prospect of an extreme-hardline Jalili presidency.
- Strong conservative camp internal divisions (Ghalibaf voters rejecting Jalili).
- Factors favoring Jalili:
- Regime support.
- Majority of first-round votes went to conservative candidates.
- Pezeshkian possibly not reformist enough to attract sufficient anti-regime voters.
|
Andrew D. Bishop
Senior Partner, Global Head of Policy Research
Head, Washington, D.C. Office | Signum Global
Signum Global Advisors is a policy and strategy firm with offices in New York, London, Washington and Dubai. |
 |
This material is prepared by SIGNUM GLOBAL ADVISORS and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date on the front page, and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by SIGNUM to be reliable, are not necessarily all inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of
negligence) is accepted by SIGNUM, its officers, employees or agents.
This material may contain 'forward-looking’ information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. This material is intended for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell in any asset classes or any investment strategy nor shall any securities be offered or sold to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. |
| Copyright © 2024, All rights reserved. |
|
|
