We flagged months ago that, despite his hawkish reputation, former President Trump was far more likely to be willing to engage in talks with Iran if reelected than is typically perceived.
- Attention to this prospect has only picked up since, with Trump himself addressing the issue as recently as today, saying: “I would do that”.
- While it is far too early for basecases regarding an “Iran deal 2.0” – and we certainly continue to be concerned about bilateral Israeli-Iranian escalation in the months ahead – here are three reasons why we believe a deal could be plausible:
- 1) While the talking point that the Iranian nuclear deal is now too advanced to be negotiated down has some merits, there are still ways of thinking creatively about its future. For example: “Framing new negotiations about weaponization, rather than enrichment” (Source).
- 2) Whereas the JCPOA (Iran nuclear deal 1.0) was negotiated as an all-encompassing, line-by-line formal text, version 2.0 could instead be “a series of partial agreements designed to curtail a variety of Iranian strategic endeavors” – for example, with country-by-country chapters across the MENA region (Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen) (Source).
- 3) Should Trump be jittery about dealing directly with Tehran, he could well ‘hide behind’ the veil of third-party countries: “For instance, Iran could cap or roll back some of its nuclear activities in return for the U.S. allowing Saudi investment in specific segments of the Iranian economy” (Source).
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Andrew D. Bishop
Senior Partner, Global Head of Policy Research
Head, Washington, D.C. Office | Signum Global
Signum Global Advisors is a policy and strategy firm with offices in New York, London, Washington and Dubai. |
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