US election: Race now Vice President Harris’ to lose

• Our February base case of a Biden reelection was driven by an expectation that, despite data showing Trump leading, Biden would on Election Day benefit from asymmetrical turnout – i.e. that Democratic voters would be more motivated to turn out than Republican voters.
  • We came to the conclusion, that the landscape favored Biden, given:
    • The historical inaccuracy of some factors:
      • early-cycle (and even late-cycle) polling,
      • betting markets (which themselves take cues from polling data),
    • The particular dynamics of the 2024 race, in which:
      • voters were dissatisfied with both candidates,
      • suggesting a low turnout environment was likely,
      • in which Biden performed better:
        • among the voters most likely to turnout, even in a low-turnout race, who were more likely to be driven by issues such as:
          • abortion and reproductive rights (which are implicitly and explicitly, as referenda in some states, on November’s ballot)
          • the ‘threat’ of a Trump presidency (perceived by Democrats and by ‘Never Trump’ Republicans and Independents).
        • and less likely to be driven by issues such as
          • immigration, which was (and remains) a primary concern, but does not have a day-to-day influence on many voters’ lives.

• In the aftermath of this week’s dramatic shake-up to the race – Biden’s withdrawal and Vice President Kamala Harris’ accession to presumptive Democratic nominee – we maintain our 65% expectation that Democrats (i.e. now Harris) will win November’s presidential race, as:
  • we continue to believe that Democrats will benefit from asymmetrical turnout among ‘base’ voters,
  • and that, indeed, Harris is more likely to motivate core constituencies (i.e. young voters, women, minority voters, progressive voters) than was Biden.

• We acknowledge that, following Biden’s ‘exit from’ and Harris’ ‘entrance to’ the race on Sunday, Trump continues to lead in polling:
  • nationally, by an average of 1.9 points in polls conducted since July 5.
  • in swing states, though statewide polling has yet to ‘catch up’ to Harris becoming the presumptive nominee and rolling out her campaign.
  • and in ‘voter enthusiasm,’ a metric in which Biden’s campaign was lagging and which Harris does not seem to have made up for since Sunday:
    • 63% of Harris voters say they are ‘extremely’ or ‘very’ enthusiastic about voting in the presidential election, while
    • 76% of Trump voters say the same.

• However, already in preliminary polling taken ‘during’ Harris’ campaign rollout, Trump’s margins have decreased:
  • In a CNN poll taken this week, surveying registered voters who had participated in similar polls earlier this year, demonstrates a 3-point shift toward Harris, who trails Trump by three percentage points (within the margin of error), halving Biden’s most recent six point deficit. In the poll:
    • Support for Harris (relative to support for Biden in April/June) increased from 42% to 47% among voters aged 18-34, as Trump’s support in that age group fell from 49% to 43%.
    • Support for Harris increased from 46% to 50% among female voters, as Trump’s support among women remained constant (and in fact fell from 46% to 45%).
    • Support for Harris increased from 70% to 78% among Black voters and 41% to 47% among Latino voters.
    • Support for Harris increased from 37% to 43% among independent voters and 81% to 90% among ‘Lean Democrat’ Independents.
    • Finally, Harris does not lose significant support from voters aged 65 and older (a risk to her nascent candidacy):
      • Harris trails 48% to Trump’s 51% in this age group, similar to Biden’s lag in April.

• And, more importantly at this stage (before a critical mass of Harris-Trump polling has been conducted, especially in swing states), we would argue Harris benefits from several additional advantages:
  • Incumbency: While much has been made of Democrats ‘losing’ the incumbency advantage without Biden on the ticket…
    • Harris herself benefits from the “trappings” of the White House, and will use to her advantage the visuals of:
      • speaking from the White House lawn,
      • travelling on Air Force Two,
      • meeting with American servicemen and servicewomen,
      • meeting with foreign leaders and dignitaries.
    • And by inheriting the Biden-Harris campaign infrastructure, Harris has the benefit of an experienced and motivated team…
      • Indeed, Harris has retained much of the Biden campaign’s leadership, including Jen O’Malley Dillon as campaign director.
    • …and approximately $100 million in campaign cash already on hand,
      • to which has been added $126 million raised in the 48 hours following Harris’ launch.
  • Abortion rights: As it has since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, we believe abortion will remain an important factor in turning out Democratic and ‘pro-choice’ Independent voters in November.
    • Since Roe was overturned, abortion has been an especially strong catalyst for Democratic and Independent ‘pro-choice’ voters:
      • Abortion has been on the ballot in seven states since 2022. In each case, the pro-choice voters have driven stronger than usual turnout in off-cycle contests and have won in every case.
    • As Vice President, and throughout the 2024 election cycle, Harris has already proven to be a particularly effective communicator on this issue.
      • She is the first vice president to visit a medical center that provides abortions,
      • has spoken often of the link between abortion rights and women’s health care,
      • and is clearly leaning into the issue since Biden dropped out Sunday.
    • Critically for Democrats in November, two of the six key swing states will feature abortion rights ballot measures.
      • Abortion rights groups have succeeded in securing ballot measures in Nevada and Arizona.
      • We assess these measures will drive strong Democratic turnout, making both states competitive for Harris despite her trailing in head-to-head polling today,
        • especially as 85% of Democrats and ‘lean Democrat’ Independents believe abortion should be legal in most/all cases.
  • A higher ceiling (than Trump): Polling has indicated (here, here) that  Democratic senators defending seats in purple or red states are in relatively strong positions, in that:
    • they are leading their Republican opponents outside the margin(s) of error,
    • and that they are outperforming Biden by as many as 12-14 points even within the same polls,
    • which was a clear indication of Biden’s unpopularity, but now presents a clear opportunity for Harris to bring these ‘split ticket’ voters back onside.
  • Age: The biggest factor hurting Biden’s level of support was the perception that he was too old to seek reelection. Harris presents a much younger and more energetic option for voters unhappy with Biden’s age.
    • Even more importantly, Harris’ relative youth now allows Democrats to paint Trump as ‘too old.’
  • Democratic base enthusiasm: As noted above in polling, Harris has already picked up support from young voters and black voters. We believe these demographics, relieved that Biden stepped aside, relate more readily to Harris and that their support will remain strong even in the face of inevitable missteps by Harris.

• While we have conviction in our base case, we acknowledge that the Harris-Trump race has yet to solidify, and indeed is likely to remain exceedingly tight through Election Day.
• Below are additional signposts which we will monitor, and which could influence our thinking about the race.
  • Harris’ choice of running mate, we believe, is likely to prove net-neutral or net-positive to her campaign, in that:
    • Harris is reportedly considering a handful of Democratic governors and lawmakers to join the ticket,
    • all of whom are experienced, moderate, white, male politicians from electorally important states, and thus will:
      • balance the demographic appeal of the ticket,
      • ‘speak the language’ of their home state and/or region,
      • and thus bolster support from non-college educated men,
      • Harris’ primary demographic weakness.
    • The current shortlist includes:
      • Arizona Senator Mark Kelly
      • Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro
      • North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper
      • Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear
      • Minnesota Governor Tim Walz
    • The most significant outlier to the above line of thinking is Beshear, as his home state of Kentucky will necessarily not flip blue. However:
      • he would be an especially effective foil to Trump running mate J.D. Vance, whose family hails from Kentucky and who frequently highlights his Appalachian upbringing,
      • and may prove appealing to voters in southern swing states of North Carolina and Georgia, though these states are not direct Kentucky neighbors.
  • RJK Jr: Polling has long indicated that Kennedy was pulling support equally from disenfranchised Republicans and Democrats. We expect that many of his Democratic supporters had been turned off by Biden’s age and will gravitate to Harris. It is unclear whether, when he drops out, he will endorse Trump. If so, that could provide Trump with a small polling boost.

• Areas of vulnerability that we will monitor include:
  • Older white voters: This demographic, which has not as-yet seen a significant shift in favor of Harris, bears watching. Biden has enjoyed stronger than usual (for a Democrat) support from this group, and while polling may indicate any loss here is offset by gains with other groups, older white voters have a higher propensity to vote than younger voters.
  • Sexism: Debate still continues over whether sexism cost Hillary Clinton the 2016 election. We think other more compelling reasons explain her loss, many of which are discussed here, but certainly with the nation’s first ever female candidate of color for the White House, explicit and implicit biases are worth watching.

• Key events/dates to watch in coming months include:
  • August TBD, vice presidential debate. A date and venue/host have yet to be agreed
  • August 19-22, Democratic National Convention in Chicago
  • September 10, scheduled (but now uncertain) presidential debate hosted by ABC
  • September 17, possible presidential debate hosted by Fox News
  • September 20, early voting starts in Virginia, Minnesota, South Dakota